FIRST WE TAKE MOSCOW, THEN WE TAKE BEIRUT!
How the Ukraine-Russia war is linked to Israel and saving the Western economy
Time is running out for Donald Trump. That peace deal with Kiev and the Kremlin really needs to happen now, he has damn well tied his reputation to it. He wants to go down in history as the man who brought peace to Ukraine, revitalized the American industry, and definitively resolved the Palestinian-Israeli issue. And all that in barely a few months.
ABSTRACT
This publication is about (1.) the time pressure under which the Trump administration is operating, (2.) the state of the American economy, and (3.) the step-by-step plan to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli issue.
Time is running out for Donald Trump. With what is on the table it is highly questionable whether the Republicans will still hold a comfortable majority in Congress and the Senate after the midterms of 2026. Trump’s major policy shocks must be pushed through the legislative process long before the midterms on November 3, 2026.
“Don’t worry about the horse being blind, just load the wagon.”
– John Madden, American Football Coach
THE ECONOMY TRUMP’S LEFT WITH
Time is running out for Donald Trump because he understands that his shock therapy with tariffs and government spending cuts is likely to have far-reaching and very tangible consequences in the short term for the American voter who tied their vote to the economy and immigration in November 2024.
Time is running out for Donald Trump. His DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) and that tariff deal (imposing import duties to protect the domestic economy) have predictable and dramatic consequences that reinforce each other. But before we look at the effects of the Trump measures, we need to examine the current situation in which the American economy has already found itself all this time.
Compared to February last year, 600,000 American jobs have disappeared in the private sector. DOGE will add a large number to public employment (At the same time, Trump concludes his first month in office with an increase of 151,000 new jobs in the private sector.)
Illegal immigration in the U.S. has cost the American economy over $500 billion in the past year. Studies show that this hidden migration cost could amount to $1.5 trillion. A cost that is passed on to future taxpayers while the current added value of migration is recorded today in the form of cheap labour and economic activity financed by additional government debt. Added value?
Think about the rental market, because illegal immigrants pay their rent in cash every month and this volume of money ends up with local businesses, hospitality, grocers, or clothing stores. And don’t forget the grey wages that illegal immigrants spend on their livelihoods. Those funds also remain in the most local cash economy.
The ‘Inflation Relief Act’ that Joe Biden signed in 2022 provides for $738 billion in tax cuts and $891 billion in additional naked spending. Deficit spending of the purest kind that eventually reaches the taxpayer’s wallet, but in return formed the credit injection that masked the recession. Yes, without these kinds of measures, it would have been crystal clear in 2022 how the American economy was already heading towards recession.
At the same time, Joe Biden will be remembered for the largest wave of government hiring in American history. Here too, dramatic unemployment figures were camouflaged with taxpayer money. During that period, the government workforce grew from approximately 2 million civil servants to roughly 2.4 million federal employees.
The FED has raised interest rates from 0.5% to 5.0%, and it should be clear that the American economy is not benefiting from this. It amounts to a contraction in the growth of the credit volume.
In 2022 and 2023, several banks drowned: Silvergate, Credit Suisse, SVB, First Republic, Signature Bank,… those banks are gone, but the foundations of the banking system and the causes of these bankruptcies remain unchanged.
The very poorest, illegal migrants, and the super-rich have made significant progress in recent years. But the American middle class of working singles or dual-income earners has significantly lost purchasing power.
“It’s the economy, stupid”
– James Carville, political strategist under W.J. Clinton, 1992
A mini-tech bubble and mini-real estate crisis are on the horizon. Both can be managed with due diligence so that they don’t develop into a systemic crisis for the financial markets. Nevertheless, these challenges lie ahead for Trump.
A president who wants to slim down the state apparatus with tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of employees. The effects already show through a contraction of the housing market in Washington D.C. where the real estate inventory is exploding. Houses that were bought and rented by well-paid officials and now – due to a lack of a job, are forced to dump their properties on an already saturated market. Those laid-off civil servants will soon partially appear in the unemployment figures.
The president who wants to make all imported goods 25% more expensive and thereby gnaws at the purchasing power of the middle class. All this while the trade deficit in 2024 already amounted to $1.2 trillion. The U.S. imports approximately $2.5 trillion annually in consumer goods, vehicles, spare parts, food, and consumables manufactured in low-wage countries.
Those goods are now becoming significantly more expensive, and this further reduces the purchasing power of the American middle class.
A president who promises to crack down so hard on illegal migration that millions of undocumented immigrants have fled the country in recent months out of fear of raids and deportation. At the same time, since November of last year, the number of border apprehensions in Texas has fallen by several percentage points. Good news, one might say. And yes, why not.
Legal migration to the U.S. is still encouraged. But the downside is almost cynical. American companies can now increasingly rely less on illegal but extremely cheap labour. This is reflected in the numbers, as well as in the rising vacancy rates of rental houses that were previously rented by illegal migrants.
With them, a lot of household money disappears that no longer circulates in the local economy and GDP.
The economic measures that D.J. Trump is implementing may bear fruit in the long term… in the short term, he cuts into the skin, the household budget, and the quality of life of the middle class to whom he owes his re-election. It is written in the stars that the same voter will severely punish him in the midterms of November 2026, causing the Republicans to lose their majorities. And all this time, we see the approval rating of this president continue to decline.
THE ROADMAP TO PALESTINE
Time is running out for Donald Trump. The peace agreement with ‘the Russians’ must come quickly now. Our legacy media, press celebrities, and commentators don’t recognise seem to value the importance of peace. How is it possible that Trump is cosying up to the Kremlin? Under Biden, Putin was still the big bad guy, and today Trump is completely overturning that foreign policy. Why?! Reasons are twofold.
One. Although Moscow can’t win this war, Kiev has definitively lost this battle. Every day, Moscow controls more territory that it will not quickly relinquish.
If this continues, Odesa will also come under Russian control and Ukraine will become a ‘land-locked state’. That is something Trump, Rubio, the Pentagon, and Wall Street want to avoid at all costs.
Two. A deal with Russia is Trump’s only shortcut to persuade Tehran to do the impossible… abandon support for Hezbollah.
MOSCOW – TEHRAN – BEIRUT – JERUSALEM
What does the real roadmap in Trump’s mind look like? To understand this, one must not lose sight of the true end goal. The ultimate goal of Trump’s foreign policy is a permanent peace, a de-escalation, and a guaranteed security around and within Israel. Not Ukraine, not Taiwan, not Panama, not Greenland.
Yes, Israel, the country from which the donations that financed Trump’s election campaign came. It is there that he must fulfil his most important election promises. Not the economy, not migration, not import tariffs, not energy, but the Lobby. Because he who pays,… decides.
One of the measures to secure the Israeli borders is the depopulation and resettlement of Palestine. But how does one get the Arab world to agree to the displacement and migration of an estimated 5.1 million Palestinians? And where to? To neighbouring countries Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan? In this list, only Lebanon is an exception. Both King Abdullah II of Jordan (1999) and General el-Sisi of Egypt (2014) are Israel’s most obedient lieutenants, installed by Washington and Tel Aviv.
The same goes for Syria, where General Al-Johlani has recently taken control. He was also financed, armed, and brought to power by Washington and Tel Aviv, and he too must ensure that no political movement rises in Syria that unites against the foreign policy of neighbouring Israel. But what about Lebanon? That is more delicate. Even now that the (mostly Iranian) arms deliveries (previously through Syria) to Hezbollah have been disrupted.
Lebanon, like Syria, is a special case, with a constitution that dictates how the religious communities should be politically represented. The Lebanese president must, by law, be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the parliamentary speaker a Shia Muslim. So much cohesion, so much order, so much envy,… that doesn’t sit well with Tel Aviv.
But between dream and deed stand Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia in the way. Behold Trump’s action plan. (1.) First, an understanding and negotiating position with Moscow. In exchange for Crimea, Ukrainian border areas, and the lifting of sanctions, Trump and Rubio want to persuade the Kremlin to (2.) pressure Tehran into signing the ‘Nuclear Deal’ in which Tehran, in return, refrains from backing Hezbollah in Lebanon. Only when Iranian support crumbles, (3.) can Hezbollah be dismantled or destroyed without Tehran’s intervention. A stupid trigger like a mortar attack or a stray bullet is enough. (4.) Only when this entire puzzle falls into place can the Israeli army carry out a thorough cleansing in Gaza and the West Bank undisturbed, unrestrained, and with a heavy hand.
CONCLUSION
The American peace deal with Ukraine is just one part of a broader plan. It is a springboard. No landing.
We might be amazed at how quickly attention shifts from one day to the next. From Ukraine to Iran. From Putin to Ayatollah Khamenei. Just like it happened on February 24, 2022. Until Wednesday, February 23, there was only one main topic and one headline; Corona, corona, corona,… A virus that fell like a gift from heaven and allowed our Western governments to accumulate extravagant deficits that turned a deflation into an inflation, and with which we cleverly postponed an impending recession.
The time has come to tap into a new existential fear and mass psychosis that can once again entice the taxpayer to go along with yet another capital-destructive emergency plan. An arms race and war economy, for example, financed by deficit spending, monetary expansion, and a hefty dose of quantitative easing.
It could also turn out differently. If the peace deal between Washington and Moscow does not materialise, Trump will not crown himself as a peacemaker, but will instead prove that it is truly impossible to negotiate with Putin. Even then, Trump will be proven right, and even then, the middle class will pay the price. Both here and in the U.S.
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